The estimated Tesla global electric car order backlog increased in the first half of May, indicating that the demand exceeded supply.
According to Troy Teslike, an invaluable source for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated global order backlog as of May 16, 2023, was roughly 83,000, which is about 15,000 units (or 22 percent) more than two weeks earlier.
The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times for each model/trim), as shown in the attached tweet.
The number of 83,000 units corresponds to about 23 days of manufacturing capacity (up by two days in a matter of two weeks), according to the report.
We guess that the main reason behind the increase is the price reduction applied on April 19 in the United States, especially since the US contributed the most to the change.
We guess that an estimated order backlog below 100,000 is still relatively low for a company, which hopes to sell 1.8+ million cars annually.
For reference, here are the numbers for previous periods (wait times):
- May 16, 2023: 83,000 (23 days)
- April 30, 2023: 68,000 (21 days)
- April 15, 2023: 72,000 (22 days)
- March 31, 2023: 102,000 (28 days)
- March 16, 2023: 103,000 (29 days)
- February 28, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
- February 15, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
- January 31, 2023: 87,000 (26 days)
- January 15, 2023: 107,000 (30 days)
- December 31, 2022: 74,000 (23 days)
- December 8, 2022: 163,000 (40 days)
- November 30, 2022: 190,000 (44 days)
- October: 31, 2022: 285,000
- September 30, 2022: 299,000
- August 31, 2022: 385,000
- March-July, 2022: around 470,000
- January-February, 2022: less than 400,000
In terms of particular markets, the balance between supply and demand is still marked “red” (too low) for all major markets (United States, Europe, and China).
In the US specifically, the estimated order backlog increased in two weeks from almost 24,000 to almost 40,000, which represents about 27 days of supply (up by seven days).
In Europe, the number decreased from over 24,000 to over 17,000 (but the wait time is the same at 23 days). In China, the situation is relatively stable at 13,000 (16 days).
Estimated order backlog:
- United States: 39,729 (27 days) – increased by 7 days in two weeks
- Canada: 1,726 (27 days) – decreased by 7 days in two weeks
- Europe: 17,410 (23 days) – no change
- China: 13,299 (16 days) – no change
- other: 10,363 (42 days) – increased by 13 days in two weeks
- Total: 82,527 (23 days) – increased by 2 day in two weeks
