The estimated Tesla global electric car order backlog decreased in June, reaching the lowest level so far, which suggests that the manufacturer might soon apply additional price cuts to maintain the balance between supply and demand.
According to Troy Teslike, an invaluable source for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated global order backlog as of June 19, 2023, was roughly 59,000 units. That’s some 16,000 (or 21 percent) less than at the end of May.
The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times for each model/trim), as shown in the attached tweet.
The 59,000 units correspond to about 18 days of manufacturing capacity (down by four days in a matter of over two weeks), according to the report.
If the estimates are correct, it seems that the increased production rate (it was a record high in Q2 2023), combined with increased sales (partially through promotions applied to existing inventory) translated into a reduction of wait times and overall order backlog.
We don’t know the numbers for the end of June (those are not yet available in the open version of the report), but Tesla might be willing to reduce prices again in July or August. It would not be surprising to us, because earlier this year, there were price reductions in January and April when the manufacturer also was trying to boost sales in accordance with increased production.
For reference, here are the numbers for previous periods (wait times):
- June 19, 2023: 59,000 (18 days)
- May 31, 2023: 75,000 (22 days)
- May 16, 2023: 83,000 (23 days)
- April 30, 2023: 68,000 (21 days)
- April 15, 2023: 72,000 (22 days)
- March 31, 2023: 102,000 (28 days)
- March 16, 2023: 103,000 (29 days)
- February 28, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
- February 15, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
- January 31, 2023: 87,000 (26 days)
- January 15, 2023: 107,000 (30 days)
- December 31, 2022: 74,000 (23 days)
- December 8, 2022: 163,000 (40 days)
- November 30, 2022: 190,000 (44 days)
- October: 31, 2022: 285,000
- September 30, 2022: 299,000
- August 31, 2022: 385,000
- March-July, 2022: around 470,000
- January-February, 2022: less than 400,000
In terms of particular markets, the balance between supply and demand remains marked “red” (too short) for all major markets (United States, Europe, and China).
In the US specifically, the estimated order backlog decreased in over two weeks from almost 35,000 to over 18,000, which represents about 16 days of supply (down by eight days). The situation in Europe and China was relatively stable.
Estimated order backlog (change in about two weeks):
- United States: 18,334 (16 days) – decreased by 8 days
- Canada: 1,480 (21 days) – decreased by 1 day
- Europe: 15,076 (20 days) – increase by 1 day
- China: 13,081 (15 days) – no change
- other: 11,512 (44 days) – decreased by 6 days
- Total: 59,483 (18 days) – decreased by 4 day
